Wednesday, December 12, 2012

A three-way trade in baseball

It seems while I was asleep last night the Reds, Indians and Diamondbacks traded a total of 9 players, with each seemingly filling a whole that each organization had. I'll do this by team.

Reds: They did well, trading Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious (to Cleveland and Arizona, respectively) and getting back Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Donald and $3.5 million. They plug an offensive whole in CF with Choo, and he'll leave after next year anyways when his contract expires, not getting in the way of Billy Hamilton (who I think will be ready in 2014).

Indians: Retooling and trading vets for prospects is good when the returns are this good. They get Trevor Bauer, who should be a fixture for some time in their rotation, Drew Stubbs who, while he had a bad year last year certainly could bounce back, and two relievers in Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw. he Indians will miss Choo, but he's a vet who's contract runs out next year, and they ain't going anywhere.

Diamondbacks: I'm still perplexed on this side of the equation. The Diamondbacks get Didi from the Reds, but send their top pitching prospect out to Cleveland, and also get throw-ins Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson. I guess they had soured on Bauer, who is something of a free spirit, but this feels like selling pennies on the dollar; if you don't like a player, but other teams do, sell him to them like you still like him.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

On the Royals' trade

By now most of you have heard about the trade between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals wherein the Royals get James Shields and Wade Davis for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.

For most of the reactions I've seen, you either love the trade or hate the trade for the Royals. They've clearly indicated they are in 'win-now mode' and are hoping they have the pieces to pull it off this year and after.

I'm not seeing it.

Don't get me wrong, getting Shields and having Davis start (thereby bumping Luke Hochevar) is a good thing. I just think the move came a tad premature, and was a drastic overpay. I think they're more than a couple SPs away from contending, especially with gaping wholes at second base and right field (where Myers should have gone). They're counting on their young guys like Hosmer, Moose and Perez to get better, and I think they will. But it might not be right now.

Ervin Santana is a 1-year stopgap. Shields has two years remaining on his deal. If one or both leave after the next two years, they really don't have anyone in the minors to replace them (Odorizzi should be good to come up this year or next; no other pitching prospect as close).

They should have given last year's team, with Myers and Odorizzi, a chance to gel together, play together to see if there were any steps back or leaps forward. Now, last year's team HAS to bounce back hard or they're just treading water.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Making MLB Showdown card formulas (pitchers)

These are for the pitcher cards, which are a bit easier than the batter cards without things like 1B+, speed or defense.

Total Control:

(First, an explanation about what control is. For this formula, it is not the number in the upper-right-hand corner of a pitcher's card, but it is the total number of outs + the number in the upper-right-hand corner. So, taking Pedro Martinez, a +5 control with 17 outs, his total control is 22 (5+17))

WHIP Under 0.8 = 23 (Pitchers like Craig Kimbrel or Billy Wagner)
WHIP 0.8-0.99 = 22
WHIP 1.00-1.15 = 21
WHIP 1.16-1.33 = 20
WHIP 1.34-1.50 = 19
WHIP 1.51-1.65 = 18
WHIP 1.66-1.80 = 17
WHIP 1.81-2.00 = 16


Innings/apperances, rounded up or down (6.3 becomes IP 6, 7.55 becomes IP 8)

If they switched between starting and relieving, you can just run the numbers as is or separate starts and relief appearences.


If they give up more than one and a half HR per innings (otherwise abbreviated as HR/9), they give up a home run result on their chart.\

If they keep the home-run results low, you may be inclined to also not allow them to give up doubles, but that's your discretion.

Walks (BB):

Per 1.7 BB/9, they get a BB result.

So, if a player allows 2.3 BB/9, I'll round it down to one BB result.
If a player allows 3.5 BB/9, I give him 2 BB results.


GB/FB results:

I use their GO/FO rate (1.00 is neutral, as many groundballs as flyballs. Higher than 1.00 is grounder-heavy, below 1.00 is flyball-heavy)


This one is tough because my attempting to reverse-formulate it didn't quite workj out, so remember these are guidelines...

1-2 SO = below 4.0 K/9
1-3 SO =  around 4.5 K/9
1-4 SO = between 5.4 and 6.2 K/9
1-5 SO = around 6.8 K/9
1-6 SO = between 8.5 and 9.2 K/9
1-7 SO = ...this is where the numbers get fudged, sadly.
1-8 SO = around 10 k/9
1-9 SO =
1-10 SO = around and over 12 K/9
1-11 SO = over 14.5 K/9