Wednesday, July 30, 2014

A look at two 'risky' Orioles relievers

I'm an Orioles fan. I'm a fan of pitchers who have odd charts. And when I have both...

*note: stats are SO/PU/GB/FB/BB/1B/2B/HR

Koji Uehara '11/Control 4/IP 1/cost-190
1-9/--/10-12/13-19/--/--/--/20

I kinda like pitchers who have a natural 20 HR on their chart. Not all the time, but when they can mitigate the runs they give up (like Arthur Rhodes 00 walking on 17-19 and then giving up the 20 HR) it's bearable (compared with, say, Brett Tomko who goes 16 BB, 17 1B, 18-19 2B(!) and then the 20 HR). They also tend to be cheaper than comparable players, which can be helpful in team building.

Koji here has decent control with his +4, but more importantly only has a single non-out result. True, it's a home run, but if he gets the pitch, batters swing an out 95% of the time on his chart.

Hoyt Wilhelm/Control +2/IP 2/Cost 340
1-5/6-9/10-17/18-20/--/--/--/--

Yes, I was a big fan of that JC Romero card where he had no hit results. I believe it also fits the knuckle-balling Wilhelm pretty well; if his knuckler is floating around the strike zone, it's impossible to hit. If his knuckler is flat though... prepare for some pain. His low control is the risk here, but having an all-out chart I think makes up for it.


I'll be posting pictures later.

edit:



Tuesday, May 21, 2013

New York State of Mind: Darryl Strawberry and Gary Carter

Let's head across town to see what going on in Flushing.

Darryl Strawberry. He was the first case where I looked at the stats and said "Wow, it's a shame what he did with his career. What might have been..."

His OB 9 and six extra-base results usually put him in the 3-4-5 slot on a team. I like that his defense is average, and the speed will surprise some people. Overall, a nice little slugger for 450 points, which can allow for nice back-up.

From the 2011 Topps set.

Gary Carter is a Met and not an Expo because I just liked this one picture best.

He's on the border with OB 7/8, which explains the five outs he has on his card. No real weaknesses, just a catcher with excellent defense who does okay with only four extra-base results (two of which are homers), and a whole lot of singles. I would park him maybe in the #2 slot (though his speed is a potential problem) or lower in the order (5-6-7) because he can still drive in runners with all those singles.

Card made from a Google image. Not hard to find.

New York State of Mind: Phil Rizzuto


So, having discussed how I did the "Legends", let's start in the Big Apple!

Phil Rizzuto represents the traditional MLB shortshop: good defense, low power. Unlike a true good-field/no-hit shortshop though, he could actually get hits (mainly singles, but whatever).

Clocking in at an OB 8, Rizzuto is a good candidate to lead off in a line-up, especially coupled with his Speed A. SS+5 is always a nice thing to have, and his low cost (240 points) allows you to take a chance of hitters with questionable fielding but better bats around the infield.

Now, there isn't a lot of power. Only three extra-base results, none being homers, will limit some stats (like RBI). But, all around not a bad little piece.

A brief review of my "Legends" series of MLB Showdown cards

When I make my "Legends" series of MLB Showdown customs*, I have to be careful how to scrutinize the data.

1) Dead-ball era and 1960s era hitters are a pain to try and do. Just do the best you can, and I usually up the offense a little bit, imagining if they played in today's era.

2) Peaks matter. I usually take a stretch of time when the player was at the top of their game (as judged by OPS+ or ERA+ as a quick reference), not taking into account decline because frankly you remember those players at their best, don't you?

3) Take the down with the bad, don't cherry-pick. This isn't usually a problem, but players like Roy Campanella were up and down. Just smooth out the data.

4) Make an average of the peak (min. 5 seasons I prefer) and extrapolate from there.

*It's got Hall of Famers and non-Hall of Famers, so the blanket term for cards for retired players is "Legends".

Friday, May 17, 2013

Returning

My oh my, life has gotten in the way for far too long. I'm planning a wedding for this summer, so forgive me for the long absence.

Some of you may have noticed that the costs for some of the MLB Showdown pitchers differ a bit (usually costing more) from their counterparts that were actually printed. The reason being simple... the costs were originally undercosted.

Say you have a 19 pitcher (16 outs +3 Control) and a 20 pitcher (16 outs +4 Control). Assuming IP 6, the first will cost about 330 points, the second about 450 points. One step up to a 21 pitcher, and we have 550 points.

Now, a +5 control pitcher (15 outs) and a +4 control pitcher (16 outs) are functionally the same. Both are 20 pitchers.

Why is it that these 20 pitchers, with 6 IP, when stacked with other 20 pitchers with 7 IP only see a 30 point increase?

As such, a 20 pitcher with IP 7 has been bumped up a smidge to about 510 to 530 points to bring costs in line.

Also, the 2001 cards were undercosted as a whole as well. Power creep is best done when not blatant...

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Toronto Blue Jays: 2011 edition

Ricky Romero: Starter, Control +4, IP 7, 580 points
1-5 SO, 6-8 PU, 9-14 GB, 15-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Brandon Morrow: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 430 points
1-9 SO, -- PU, 10-12 GB, 13-17 FB, 18-19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Brett Cecil: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 230 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17 BB, 18 1B, 19 2B, 20 HR

Kyle Drabek: Starter, Control +0, IP 6, 40 points
1-4 SO, 5-8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17-20 BB, -- 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Octavio Dotel: Reliever, Control +5 , IP 1, 230 points
1-7 SO, 8-9 PU, 10-11 GB, 12-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Frank Francisco: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 140 points
1-7 SO, 8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-15 FB, 16-17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Marc Rzepczynski: Reliver, Control +2, IP 1, 140 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-16 GB, 17-18 FB, 19-20 BB, -- 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

JP Arencibia: C+5, Onbase 5, speed C, 210 points
1-5 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 6-8 BB, 9-11 1B, -- 1B+, 12-14 2B, 15 3B, 16-20 HR

Aaron Hill: 2B+3, Onbase 6, speed A, 170 points
1 SO, 2-4 GB, 5 FB, 6-8 BB, 9-12 1B, 13 1B+, 14-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Yunel Escobar: SS+3, Onbase 9, speed B, 360 points
1 SO, 2-3 GB, 4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-16 1B, -- 1B+, 17-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Edwin Encarnacion: 3B+0, Onbase 7, speed C, 170 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, -- 1B+, 14-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Jose Batista: LR/RF+1, 3B+2, Onbase 10, speed B, 700 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 3-9 BB, 10-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Tampa Bay Rays: 2011 edition

James Shields: Starter, Control +5, IP 8, 650 points
1-6 SO, 7-9 PU, 10-14 GB, 15-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

David Price: Starter, Control +4, IP 7, 580 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-14 GB, 15-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jeff Niemann: Starter, Control +5, IP 6, 460 points
1-5 SO, 6 PU, 7-11 GB, 12-15 FB, 16 BB, 17-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jeremy Hellickson: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 450 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Wade Davis: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 340 points
1-4 SO, 5 PU, 6-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Kyle Farnsworth: Reliever, Control +3, IP 1, 220 points
1-6 SO, 7-9 PU, 10-17 GB, 18-19 FB, -- BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Joel Peralta: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 200 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-9 GB, 10-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Juan Cruz: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 170 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Johnny Damon: DH, Onbase 7, speed A, 210 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Kelly Shoppach: C+8, Onbase 5, speed C, 210 points
1-4 SO, 5 GB, -- FB, 6-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Carlos Pena: 1B+0, Onbase 8, speed C, 280 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 4-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Casey Kotchman: 1B+0, Onbase9, speed C, 270 points
1 SO, 2-3 GB 4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-16 1B, -- 1B+, 17-19 2B, -- 20 HR

Ben Zobrist: 2B+3, LF/RF+1, Onbase 8, speed A, 320 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4-5 FB, 6-9 BB, 10-12 1B, 13 1B+, 14-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Reid Brignac: SS+3, Onbase 3, speed B, 30 points
1-4 SO, 5 GB, -- FB, 6-7 BB, 8-15 1B, -- 1B+, 16-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Evan Longoria: 3B+3, Onbase 8, speed B, 300 points
1 SO, 2 GB, 3-4 FB, 5-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Desmond Jennings: LF/RF+2, Onbase 8, speed A, 270 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-9 BB, 10-14 1B, 15 1B+, 16-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Matt Joyce: LF/RF+1, Onbase 8, speed A, 270 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

BJ Upton: CF+2, LF/RF+1, Onbase 7, speed A, 300 points
1-5 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 6-10 BB, 11 1B, 12-13 1B+, 14-16 2B, 17 3B, 18-20 HR