Tuesday, May 21, 2013

New York State of Mind: Darryl Strawberry and Gary Carter

Let's head across town to see what going on in Flushing.

Darryl Strawberry. He was the first case where I looked at the stats and said "Wow, it's a shame what he did with his career. What might have been..."

His OB 9 and six extra-base results usually put him in the 3-4-5 slot on a team. I like that his defense is average, and the speed will surprise some people. Overall, a nice little slugger for 450 points, which can allow for nice back-up.

From the 2011 Topps set.

Gary Carter is a Met and not an Expo because I just liked this one picture best.

He's on the border with OB 7/8, which explains the five outs he has on his card. No real weaknesses, just a catcher with excellent defense who does okay with only four extra-base results (two of which are homers), and a whole lot of singles. I would park him maybe in the #2 slot (though his speed is a potential problem) or lower in the order (5-6-7) because he can still drive in runners with all those singles.

Card made from a Google image. Not hard to find.

New York State of Mind: Phil Rizzuto


So, having discussed how I did the "Legends", let's start in the Big Apple!

Phil Rizzuto represents the traditional MLB shortshop: good defense, low power. Unlike a true good-field/no-hit shortshop though, he could actually get hits (mainly singles, but whatever).

Clocking in at an OB 8, Rizzuto is a good candidate to lead off in a line-up, especially coupled with his Speed A. SS+5 is always a nice thing to have, and his low cost (240 points) allows you to take a chance of hitters with questionable fielding but better bats around the infield.

Now, there isn't a lot of power. Only three extra-base results, none being homers, will limit some stats (like RBI). But, all around not a bad little piece.

A brief review of my "Legends" series of MLB Showdown cards

When I make my "Legends" series of MLB Showdown customs*, I have to be careful how to scrutinize the data.

1) Dead-ball era and 1960s era hitters are a pain to try and do. Just do the best you can, and I usually up the offense a little bit, imagining if they played in today's era.

2) Peaks matter. I usually take a stretch of time when the player was at the top of their game (as judged by OPS+ or ERA+ as a quick reference), not taking into account decline because frankly you remember those players at their best, don't you?

3) Take the down with the bad, don't cherry-pick. This isn't usually a problem, but players like Roy Campanella were up and down. Just smooth out the data.

4) Make an average of the peak (min. 5 seasons I prefer) and extrapolate from there.

*It's got Hall of Famers and non-Hall of Famers, so the blanket term for cards for retired players is "Legends".

Friday, May 17, 2013

Returning

My oh my, life has gotten in the way for far too long. I'm planning a wedding for this summer, so forgive me for the long absence.

Some of you may have noticed that the costs for some of the MLB Showdown pitchers differ a bit (usually costing more) from their counterparts that were actually printed. The reason being simple... the costs were originally undercosted.

Say you have a 19 pitcher (16 outs +3 Control) and a 20 pitcher (16 outs +4 Control). Assuming IP 6, the first will cost about 330 points, the second about 450 points. One step up to a 21 pitcher, and we have 550 points.

Now, a +5 control pitcher (15 outs) and a +4 control pitcher (16 outs) are functionally the same. Both are 20 pitchers.

Why is it that these 20 pitchers, with 6 IP, when stacked with other 20 pitchers with 7 IP only see a 30 point increase?

As such, a 20 pitcher with IP 7 has been bumped up a smidge to about 510 to 530 points to bring costs in line.

Also, the 2001 cards were undercosted as a whole as well. Power creep is best done when not blatant...

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Toronto Blue Jays: 2011 edition

Ricky Romero: Starter, Control +4, IP 7, 580 points
1-5 SO, 6-8 PU, 9-14 GB, 15-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Brandon Morrow: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 430 points
1-9 SO, -- PU, 10-12 GB, 13-17 FB, 18-19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Brett Cecil: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 230 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17 BB, 18 1B, 19 2B, 20 HR

Kyle Drabek: Starter, Control +0, IP 6, 40 points
1-4 SO, 5-8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17-20 BB, -- 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Octavio Dotel: Reliever, Control +5 , IP 1, 230 points
1-7 SO, 8-9 PU, 10-11 GB, 12-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Frank Francisco: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 140 points
1-7 SO, 8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-15 FB, 16-17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Marc Rzepczynski: Reliver, Control +2, IP 1, 140 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-16 GB, 17-18 FB, 19-20 BB, -- 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

JP Arencibia: C+5, Onbase 5, speed C, 210 points
1-5 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 6-8 BB, 9-11 1B, -- 1B+, 12-14 2B, 15 3B, 16-20 HR

Aaron Hill: 2B+3, Onbase 6, speed A, 170 points
1 SO, 2-4 GB, 5 FB, 6-8 BB, 9-12 1B, 13 1B+, 14-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Yunel Escobar: SS+3, Onbase 9, speed B, 360 points
1 SO, 2-3 GB, 4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-16 1B, -- 1B+, 17-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Edwin Encarnacion: 3B+0, Onbase 7, speed C, 170 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, -- 1B+, 14-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Jose Batista: LR/RF+1, 3B+2, Onbase 10, speed B, 700 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 3-9 BB, 10-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Tampa Bay Rays: 2011 edition

James Shields: Starter, Control +5, IP 8, 650 points
1-6 SO, 7-9 PU, 10-14 GB, 15-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

David Price: Starter, Control +4, IP 7, 580 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-14 GB, 15-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jeff Niemann: Starter, Control +5, IP 6, 460 points
1-5 SO, 6 PU, 7-11 GB, 12-15 FB, 16 BB, 17-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jeremy Hellickson: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 450 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Wade Davis: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 340 points
1-4 SO, 5 PU, 6-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Kyle Farnsworth: Reliever, Control +3, IP 1, 220 points
1-6 SO, 7-9 PU, 10-17 GB, 18-19 FB, -- BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Joel Peralta: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 200 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-9 GB, 10-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Juan Cruz: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 170 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Johnny Damon: DH, Onbase 7, speed A, 210 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Kelly Shoppach: C+8, Onbase 5, speed C, 210 points
1-4 SO, 5 GB, -- FB, 6-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Carlos Pena: 1B+0, Onbase 8, speed C, 280 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 4-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Casey Kotchman: 1B+0, Onbase9, speed C, 270 points
1 SO, 2-3 GB 4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-16 1B, -- 1B+, 17-19 2B, -- 20 HR

Ben Zobrist: 2B+3, LF/RF+1, Onbase 8, speed A, 320 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4-5 FB, 6-9 BB, 10-12 1B, 13 1B+, 14-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Reid Brignac: SS+3, Onbase 3, speed B, 30 points
1-4 SO, 5 GB, -- FB, 6-7 BB, 8-15 1B, -- 1B+, 16-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Evan Longoria: 3B+3, Onbase 8, speed B, 300 points
1 SO, 2 GB, 3-4 FB, 5-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Desmond Jennings: LF/RF+2, Onbase 8, speed A, 270 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-9 BB, 10-14 1B, 15 1B+, 16-17 2B, 18 3B, 19-20 HR

Matt Joyce: LF/RF+1, Onbase 8, speed A, 270 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

BJ Upton: CF+2, LF/RF+1, Onbase 7, speed A, 300 points
1-5 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 6-10 BB, 11 1B, 12-13 1B+, 14-16 2B, 17 3B, 18-20 HR

New York Yankees: 2011 edition

CC Sabathia: Starter, Control +5, IP 7, 520 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-12 GB, 13-15 FB, 16 BB, 17-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Ivan Nova: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 460 points
1-4 SO, 5 PU, 6-13 GB, 14-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Bartolo Colon: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 430 points
1-5 SO, 6-7 PU, 8-13 GB, 14-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

AJ Burnett: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 200 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-13 GB, 14-16 FB, 17-18 BB, -- 1B, 19 2B, 20 HR

Mariano Rivera: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 220 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-14 GB, 15-18 FB, 19 BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

David Robertson: Reliever, Control +6, IP 1, 160 points
1-10 SO, -- PU, 11-15 GB, -- FB, 16-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Luis Ayala: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 140 points
1-5 SO, 6 PU, 7-14 GB, 15-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jorge Posada: DH/1B+0, Onbase 7, Speed C, 210 points
1-2 SO, 3-4 GB, 5-6 FB, 7-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Russell Martin: C+6, Onbase 7, speed B, 220 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Mark Teixeira: 1B+0, Onbase 7, speed C, 300 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3 FB, 4-8 BB, 9-12 1B, -- 1B+, 13-15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Robinson Cano: 2B+3, Onabse 8, speed B, 310 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4 FB, 5-6 BB, 7-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Derek Jeter: SS+1, Onabse 8, speed B, 200 points
1-2 SO, 3-4 GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-16 1B, 17 1B+, 18-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Alex Rodriguez: 3B+3, Onbase 9, speed C, 370 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-5 FB, 6-9 BB, 10-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Nick Swisher: LF/RF+2, Onbase 9, speed C, 340 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4 FB, 5-10 BB, 11-15 1B, -- 1B+, 16-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Andruw Jones: LF/RF+1, Onbase 8, speed C, 330 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-9 BB, 10-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-16 2B, -- 3B, 17-20 HR

Brett Gardner: LF/RF+2, Onbase 8, speed A, 260 points
1-2 SO, 3-5 GB, -- FB, 6-9 BB, 10-14 1B, 15-16 1B+. 17-18 2B, 19 3B, 20 HR

Curtis Granderson: OF+2, Onbase 9, speed A, 600 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4 FB, 5-9 BB, 10-12 1B, 13 1B+, 14-15 2B, 16 3B, 17-20 HR

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Boston Red Sox: 2011 edition

In case people are curious about the players I chose, almost all had a card in the 2011 Topps baseball card set, which I put the stats onto. This is why some teams like the BoSox have more members than the teams I like; it's just easier to roll with what you have.

Josh Beckett: Starter, Control +5, IP 6, 510 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jon Lester: Starter, Control +5, IP 6, 460 points
1-6 SO, -- PU, 7-13 GB, 14-15 FB, 16-17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Clay Buchholz: starter, Control +4, IP 6, 450 points
1-5 SO, 6-7 PU, 8-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Tim Wakefield: Starter, Control +3, IP 5, 260 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

John Lackey: starter, Control +0, IP 6, 160 points
1-4 SO, 5-7 PU, 8-13 GB, 14-18 FB, 19 BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Alfredo Aceves: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 180 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Daniel Bard: Reliever, Control + 5, IP 1, 180 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-15 GB, 16-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jonathan Papelbon: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 210 points
1-10 SO, -- PU, 11-13 GB, 14-18 FB, 19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

David Ortiz: DH, Onbase 10, speed C, 510 points
1 SO, -- GB, 2-4 FB, 5-9 BB, 10-13 1B, --1B+, 14-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Onbase 6, Speed C, C+6, 210 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, 5 FB, 6-8 BB, 9-11 1B, -- 1B+, 12-15 2B, 16 3B, 17-20 HR

Jason Varitek: Onbase 6, speed C, C+3, 170 points
1-3 SO, 4 GB, 5 FB, 6-9 BB, 10-12 1B -- 1B+, 13-16 2B, -- 3B, 17-20 HR

Adrian Gonzalez: 1B+1, Onbase 10, speed C, 500 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Dustin Pedroia: 2B+4, Onbase 9, speed B, 420 points
1 SO, 2-3 GB, 4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-13 1B, 14-15 1B+, 16-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Marco Scutaro: SS+2, Onbase 8, speed B, 250 points
-- SO, 1-2 GB, 3-4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-15 1B, -- 1B+, 16-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Kevin Youkilis: 3B+2, Onbase 9, speed C, 360 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Wilson Betemit: 3B +1, Onbase 8, speed B, 250 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, 19 3B, 20 HR

Carl Crawford: LF/RF +1, Onbase 6, speed A, 160 points
1-2 SO, 3-4 GB, -- FB, 5-6 BB, 7-11 1B, 12 1B+, 13-16 2B, 17-18 3B, 19-20 HR

Jacoby Ellsbury: CF +3, LF/RF +2, Onbase 9, Speed A, 450 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Baltimore Orioles: 2011 edition

Sorry for the slight delay.

Remember, these are the Orioles of the 2011 season, not 2012.

Jeremy Guthrie: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 450 points
1-4 SO, 5-8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Zach Britton: Starter, Control +2, IP 6, 330 Points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-14 GB, 15-17 FB, 18-19 BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Brian Matusz (based on 2010 stats): starter, Control +3, IP 5, 260 Points
1-5 SO, 6-7 PU, 8-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Koji Uehara: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 190 points
1-9 SO, -- PU, 10-12 GB, 13-19 FB, -- BB, -- 1B, --2B, 20 HR

Jim Johnson: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 170 points
1-4 SO, 5-7 PU, 8-14 GB, 15-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

EDIT: This one was misplaced, so he's added now.
Kevin Gregg: Reliever, Control +2, IP 1, 90 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-11 GB, 12-16 FB, 17-19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Vladimir Guerrero: DH, Onbase 7, Speed C, 190 Points
1 SO, 2-3 GB, 4-5 FB, 6-7 BB, 8-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Matt Wieters: C, Onbase 7, C+8, Speed C, 270 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, -- 1B+, 14-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

JJ Hardy: SS, Onbase 6, SS+5, Speed B, 270 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-6 BB, 7-11 1B, -- 1B+, 12-15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Mark Reynolds: 1B/3B +0, Onbase 7, speed C, 270 points
1-5 SO, -- GB, --FB, 6-10 BB, 11-12 1B, -- 1B+, 12-15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Nick Markakis: LF/RF +2, Onbase 8, speed B, 240 points
1 SO, 2-4 GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-15 1B, 16 1B+, 17-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Luke Scott: LF/RF +1, 1B+0, Onbase 6, speed C, 220 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, --FB, 5-8 BB, 9-12 1B, --1B+, 13-16 2B, -- 3B, 17-20 HR

Adam Jones: OF +1, Onbase 7, speed B, 260 points
1-4 SO, 5 GB, -- FB, 6-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Offseason baseball

I've not been on much, somewhat due to work but also due to the lack of much to talk about in baseball (in particular with my beloved Orioles).

I will, however, be ambitious. I did a set of MLB Showdown cards based on the 2011 season, and since I have no plans for doing a 2012 sets, save for some rookies, I will start to post them.

Tomorrow: Baltimore Orioles
Thursday: Boston Red Sox
Friday: New York Yankees
Saturday: Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday: Toronto Blue Jays

See you then!