A look at two 'risky' Orioles relievers

I'm an Orioles fan. I'm a fan of pitchers who have odd charts. And when I have both...

*note: stats are SO/PU/GB/FB/BB/1B/2B/HR

Koji Uehara '11/Control 4/IP 1/cost-190
1-9/--/10-12/13-19/--/--/--/20

I kinda like pitchers who have a natural 20 HR on their chart. Not all the time, but when they can mitigate the runs they give up (like Arthur Rhodes 00 walking on 17-19 and then giving up the 20 HR) it's bearable (compared with, say, Brett Tomko who goes 16 BB, 17 1B, 18-19 2B(!) and then the 20 HR). They also tend to be cheaper than comparable players, which can be helpful in team building.

Koji here has decent control with his +4, but more importantly only has a single non-out result. True, it's a home run, but if he gets the pitch, batters swing an out 95% of the time on his chart.

Hoyt Wilhelm/Control +2/IP 2/Cost 340
1-5/6-9/10-17/18-20/--/--/--/--

Yes, I was a big fan of that JC Romero card where he had no hit results. I believe it also fits the knuckle-balling Wilhelm pretty well; if his knuckler is floating around the strike zone, it's impossible to hit. If his knuckler is flat though... prepare for some pain. His low control is the risk here, but having an all-out chart I think makes up for it.


I'll be posting pictures later.

edit:

New York State of Mind: Darryl Strawberry and Gary Carter

Let's head across town to see what going on in Flushing.

Darryl Strawberry. He was the first case where I looked at the stats and said "Wow, it's a shame what he did with his career. What might have been..."

His OB 9 and six extra-base results usually put him in the 3-4-5 slot on a team. I like that his defense is average, and the speed will surprise some people. Overall, a nice little slugger for 450 points, which can allow for nice back-up.

From the 2011 Topps set.

Gary Carter is a Met and not an Expo because I just liked this one picture best.

He's on the border with OB 7/8, which explains the five outs he has on his card. No real weaknesses, just a catcher with excellent defense who does okay with only four extra-base results (two of which are homers), and a whole lot of singles. I would park him maybe in the #2 slot (though his speed is a potential problem) or lower in the order (5-6-7) because he can still drive in runners with all those singles.

Card made from a Google image. Not hard to find.

New York State of Mind: Phil Rizzuto

So, having discussed how I did the "Legends", let's start in the Big Apple!

Phil Rizzuto represents the traditional MLB shortshop: good defense, low power. Unlike a true good-field/no-hit shortshop though, he could actually get hits (mainly singles, but whatever).

Clocking in at an OB 8, Rizzuto is a good candidate to lead off in a line-up, especially coupled with his Speed A. SS+5 is always a nice thing to have, and his low cost (240 points) allows you to take a chance of hitters with questionable fielding but better bats around the infield.

Now, there isn't a lot of power. Only three extra-base results, none being homers, will limit some stats (like RBI). But, all around not a bad little piece.

Card is from the 2011 Topps set. Link http://sportscardradio.com/sports-card-directory/product-previews-a-reviews/740-2011-topps-series-1-baseball-box-complete-set-checklist, since I loved how these cards looked.

A brief review of my "Legends" series of MLB Showdown cards

When I make my "Legends" series of MLB Showdown customs*, I have to be careful how to scrutinize the data.

1) Dead-ball era and 1960s era hitters are a pain to try and do. Just do the best you can, and I usually up the offense a little bit, imagining if they played in today's era.

2) Peaks matter. I usually take a stretch of time when the player was at the top of their game (as judged by OPS+ or ERA+ as a quick reference), not taking into account decline because frankly you remember those players at their best, don't you?

3) Take the down with the bad, don't cherry-pick. This isn't usually a problem, but players like Roy Campanella were up and down. Just smooth out the data.

4) Make an average of the peak (min. 5 seasons I prefer) and extrapolate from there.

*It's got Hall of Famers and non-Hall of Famers, so the blanket term for cards for retired players is "Legends".

New York Yankees: 2011 edition

CC Sabathia: Starter, Control +5, IP 7, 520 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-12 GB, 13-15 FB, 16 BB, 17-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Ivan Nova: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 460 points
1-4 SO, 5 PU, 6-13 GB, 14-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Bartolo Colon: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 430 points
1-5 SO, 6-7 PU, 8-13 GB, 14-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

AJ Burnett: Starter, Control +3, IP 6, 200 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-13 GB, 14-16 FB, 17-18 BB, -- 1B, 19 2B, 20 HR

Mariano Rivera: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 220 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-14 GB, 15-18 FB, 19 BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

David Robertson: Reliever, Control +6, IP 1, 160 points
1-10 SO, -- PU, 11-15 GB, -- FB, 16-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Luis Ayala: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 140 points
1-5 SO, 6 PU, 7-14 GB, 15-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jorge Posada: DH/1B+0, Onbase 7, Speed C, 210 points
1-2 SO, 3-4 GB, 5-6 FB, 7-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Russell Martin: C+6, Onbase 7, speed B, 220 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Mark Teixeira: 1B+0, Onbase 7, speed C, 300 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3 FB, 4-8 BB, 9-12 1B, -- 1B+, 13-15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Robinson Cano: 2B+3, Onabse 8, speed B, 310 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4 FB, 5-6 BB, 7-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Derek Jeter: SS+1, Onabse 8, speed B, 200 points
1-2 SO, 3-4 GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-16 1B, 17 1B+, 18-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Alex Rodriguez: 3B+3, Onbase 9, speed C, 370 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-5 FB, 6-9 BB, 10-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Nick Swisher: LF/RF+2, Onbase 9, speed C, 340 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4 FB, 5-10 BB, 11-15 1B, -- 1B+, 16-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Andruw Jones: LF/RF+1, Onbase 8, speed C, 330 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-9 BB, 10-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-16 2B, -- 3B, 17-20 HR

Brett Gardner: LF/RF+2, Onbase 8, speed A, 260 points
1-2 SO, 3-5 GB, -- FB, 6-9 BB, 10-14 1B, 15-16 1B+. 17-18 2B, 19 3B, 20 HR

Curtis Granderson: OF+2, Onbase 9, speed A, 600 points
1-3 SO, -- GB, 4 FB, 5-9 BB, 10-12 1B, 13 1B+, 14-15 2B, 16 3B, 17-20 HR

Boston Red Sox: 2011 edition

In case people are curious about the players I chose, almost all had a card in the 2011 Topps baseball card set, which I put the stats onto. This is why some teams like the BoSox have more members than the teams I like; it's just easier to roll with what you have.

Josh Beckett: Starter, Control +5, IP 6, 510 points
1-6 SO, 7-8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jon Lester: Starter, Control +5, IP 6, 460 points
1-6 SO, -- PU, 7-13 GB, 14-15 FB, 16-17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Clay Buchholz: starter, Control +4, IP 6, 450 points
1-5 SO, 6-7 PU, 8-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Tim Wakefield: Starter, Control +3, IP 5, 260 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

John Lackey: starter, Control +0, IP 6, 160 points
1-4 SO, 5-7 PU, 8-13 GB, 14-18 FB, 19 BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Alfredo Aceves: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 180 points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Daniel Bard: Reliever, Control + 5, IP 1, 180 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-15 GB, 16-17 FB, 18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Jonathan Papelbon: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 210 points
1-10 SO, -- PU, 11-13 GB, 14-18 FB, 19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

David Ortiz: DH, Onbase 10, speed C, 510 points
1 SO, -- GB, 2-4 FB, 5-9 BB, 10-13 1B, --1B+, 14-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Onbase 6, Speed C, C+6, 210 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, 5 FB, 6-8 BB, 9-11 1B, -- 1B+, 12-15 2B, 16 3B, 17-20 HR

Jason Varitek: Onbase 6, speed C, C+3, 170 points
1-3 SO, 4 GB, 5 FB, 6-9 BB, 10-12 1B -- 1B+, 13-16 2B, -- 3B, 17-20 HR

Adrian Gonzalez: 1B+1, Onbase 10, speed C, 500 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Dustin Pedroia: 2B+4, Onbase 9, speed B, 420 points
1 SO, 2-3 GB, 4 FB, 5-8 BB, 9-13 1B, 14-15 1B+, 16-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Marco Scutaro: SS+2, Onbase 8, speed B, 250 points
-- SO, 1-2 GB, 3-4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-15 1B, -- 1B+, 16-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Kevin Youkilis: 3B+2, Onbase 9, speed C, 360 points
1-2 SO, -- GB, 3-4 FB, 5-10 BB, 11-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Wilson Betemit: 3B +1, Onbase 8, speed B, 250 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, 19 3B, 20 HR

Carl Crawford: LF/RF +1, Onbase 6, speed A, 160 points
1-2 SO, 3-4 GB, -- FB, 5-6 BB, 7-11 1B, 12 1B+, 13-16 2B, 17-18 3B, 19-20 HR

Jacoby Ellsbury: CF +3, LF/RF +2, Onbase 9, Speed A, 450 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Baltimore Orioles: 2011 edition

Sorry for the slight delay.

Remember, these are the Orioles of the 2011 season, not 2012.

Jeremy Guthrie: Starter, Control +4, IP 6, 450 points
1-4 SO, 5-8 PU, 9-12 GB, 13-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Zach Britton: Starter, Control +2, IP 6, 330 Points
1-4 SO, 5-6 PU, 7-14 GB, 15-17 FB, 18-19 BB, 20 1B, -- 2B, -- HR

Brian Matusz (based on 2010 stats): starter, Control +3, IP 5, 260 Points
1-5 SO, 6-7 PU, 8-10 GB, 11-16 FB, 17-18 BB, 19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Koji Uehara: Reliever, Control +4, IP 1, 190 points
1-9 SO, -- PU, 10-12 GB, 13-19 FB, -- BB, -- 1B, --2B, 20 HR

Jim Johnson: Reliever, Control +5, IP 1, 170 points
1-4 SO, 5-7 PU, 8-14 GB, 15-16 FB, 17 BB, 18-19 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

EDIT: This one was misplaced, so he's added now.
Kevin Gregg: Reliever, Control +2, IP 1, 90 points
1-6 SO, 7 PU, 8-11 GB, 12-16 FB, 17-19 BB, -- 1B, 20 2B, -- HR

Vladimir Guerrero: DH, Onbase 7, Speed C, 190 Points
1 SO, 2-3 GB, 4-5 FB, 6-7 BB, 8-14 1B, -- 1B+, 15-18 2B, -- 3B, 19-20 HR

Matt Wieters: C, Onbase 7, C+8, Speed C, 270 points
1-2 SO, 3 GB, 4 FB, 5-7 BB, 8-13 1B, -- 1B+, 14-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

JJ Hardy: SS, Onbase 6, SS+5, Speed B, 270 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, -- FB, 5-6 BB, 7-11 1B, -- 1B+, 12-15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Mark Reynolds: 1B/3B +0, Onbase 7, speed C, 270 points
1-5 SO, -- GB, --FB, 6-10 BB, 11-12 1B, -- 1B+, 12-15 2B, -- 3B, 16-20 HR

Nick Markakis: LF/RF +2, Onbase 8, speed B, 240 points
1 SO, 2-4 GB, -- FB, 5-7 BB, 8-15 1B, 16 1B+, 17-19 2B, -- 3B, 20 HR

Luke Scott: LF/RF +1, 1B+0, Onbase 6, speed C, 220 points
1-4 SO, -- GB, --FB, 5-8 BB, 9-12 1B, --1B+, 13-16 2B, -- 3B, 17-20 HR

Adam Jones: OF +1, Onbase 7, speed B, 260 points
1-4 SO, 5 GB, -- FB, 6-7 BB, 8-13 1B, 14 1B+, 15-17 2B, -- 3B, 18-20 HR

Offseason baseball

I've not been on much, somewhat due to work but also due to the lack of much to talk about in baseball (in particular with my beloved Orioles).

I will, however, be ambitious. I did a set of MLB Showdown cards based on the 2011 season, and since I have no plans for doing a 2012 sets, save for some rookies, I will start to post them.

Tomorrow: Baltimore Orioles
Thursday: Boston Red Sox
Friday: New York Yankees
Saturday: Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday: Toronto Blue Jays

See you then!

Making MLB Showdown card formulas (pitchers)

These are for the pitcher cards, which are a bit easier than the batter cards without things like 1B+, speed or defense.

Total Control:

(First, an explanation about what control is. For this formula, it is not the number in the upper-right-hand corner of a pitcher's card, but it is the total number of outs + the number in the upper-right-hand corner. So, taking Pedro Martinez, a +5 control with 17 outs, his total control is 22 (5+17))

WHIP Under 0.8 = 23 (Pitchers like Craig Kimbrel or Billy Wagner)
WHIP 0.8-0.99 = 22
WHIP 1.00-1.15 = 21
WHIP 1.16-1.33 = 20
WHIP 1.34-1.50 = 19
WHIP 1.51-1.65 = 18
WHIP 1.66-1.80 = 17
WHIP 1.81-2.00 = 16

Innings:

Innings/apperances, rounded up or down (6.3 becomes IP 6, 7.55 becomes IP 8)

If they switched between starting and relieving, you can just run the numbers as is or separate starts and relief appearences.

Homers:

If they give up more than one and a half HR per innings (otherwise abbreviated as HR/9), they give up a home run result on their chart.\

If they keep the home-run results low, you may be inclined to also not allow them to give up doubles, but that's your discretion.

Walks (BB):

Per 1.7 BB/9, they get a BB result.

So, if a player allows 2.3 BB/9, I'll round it down to one BB result.
If a player allows 3.5 BB/9, I give him 2 BB results.

etc.

GB/FB results:

I use their GO/FO rate (1.00 is neutral, as many groundballs as flyballs. Higher than 1.00 is grounder-heavy, below 1.00 is flyball-heavy)

Strikeouts:

This one is tough because my attempting to reverse-formulate it didn't quite workj out, so remember these are guidelines...

1-2 SO = below 4.0 K/9
1-3 SO =  around 4.5 K/9
1-4 SO = between 5.4 and 6.2 K/9
1-5 SO = around 6.8 K/9
1-6 SO = between 8.5 and 9.2 K/9
1-7 SO = ...this is where the numbers get fudged, sadly.
1-8 SO = around 10 k/9
1-9 SO =
1-10 SO = around and over 12 K/9
1-11 SO = over 14.5 K/9

Eddie Yost

I'll repost this article from Fangraphs, but also post a little of my own thoughts.

Two days ago, Eddie Yost passed away at the age of 86. He was a third baseman for the Washington Senators, and if you look at the history of the Minnesota Twins and combine it with the original Senators, he still is the best third baseman in franchise history.

He was known  for drawing walks, which is remarkable considering how little power he had.

MLB Showdown stats:

OB 10, 3B+2, Speed B, 370 points
1 SO,
2-3 GB
4 FB
5-11 BB
12-17 1B
 -- 1B+
18-19 2B
-- 3B
20 HR

Tannhauser custom: The Children of the Hydra's Teeth

My intent for customs is to post my own, but I will also cross-post other's work because it's the right thing to do. And they are that awesome.

These are tokens/troopers for the Reich faction (Hass Harbinger specific)

http://teumessa.blogspot.com/2011/11/children-of-hydras-teeth.html

Making MLB Showdown card formulas (Batters)

It's actually not to hard to make a card, per se, as long is you either use actual baseball cards or print off a picture of your players off the internet.

The problem is the formula for making the cards and their charts, because without those, you got nothing.

Now, this is based off memory of a formula created by a user on Showdowncards.com's forums before they killed it. I do not know the user's name, but whoever you are out there, thank you. This is for the 2000 and 2001 sets, since I like them best.

On-Base:

OBP of .470+ = 11 (yes, there are players this good...)
OBP of .390-.469 = 10
OBP of .360-.389 = 9
OBP of .340-.359 = 8
OBP of .315-.339 = 7
OBP of .290-.314 = 6
OBP of .260-.280 = 5
OBP of .240-.259 = 4
OBP <.239 = 3 (yes, there are players this bad...)

These stats can easily be found at websites like Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs, so you don't have to try and calculate them by hand.

Now, the number of outs a batter has on his chart is up to you; if they are on the lower end of the scale, say, with a .342 OBP, they can get 5 outs. Likewise, if they're on the high end, say, with a .359 OBP, I'd give them 3 outs.

Walk (BB) Results: 

Take the Batter's Average (BA) and subtract it from the OBP. For every twenty, they get one BB result.

So, for example, Mark Reynolds of the Baltimore Orioles had a .221 BA and a .323 OBP.

323-221 = 102, so he'll get 5 BB results.

You will have to round up or down to the nearest 20.

Triple (3B) results:

If they got 6-7 triples in a season, they get one 3B result. Double that, get 2 3B results, etc.

Doubles (2B) and Home Run (HR) results:

Take the number of doubles or home runs the batter has hit, divide by the b=number of at-bats (AB), then multiply by 600. For every ten, they get one 2B or HR result.

So, using Mark Reynolds again, he had 27 doubles in 534 at bats.

(27/534) x 600 = 30.34, so he'd get 3 double results.

Single+ results:

This is up to you. They steal more than a dozen bases? Give 'em one Single+ result. They steal a lot of bases? Maybe more like three or more.

Singles:

Whatever space you have left between BB and Single+ results are just plain old Singles.

On-base adjustments:

If the player has an On-Base of 8 or higher, you just use the results from above. If they have a lower On-Base than that, they get an adjustment.

On-Base 7: +1 for Doubles and Home Runs
On-Base 6: +1/2 for Doubles and Home Runs, maybe +1 for Triples
On-Base 5: Provided the actually hit some, +2 for doubles and Home runs
On-Base 4 & 3: You get the idea.

Now, this is part art, part science. Don't let that get you down.

Speed:

Did they steal a lot of bases? A
A Few? B
Were they tortoises? C

Defense:

This is mostly subjective as well, except for catchers. Remember, there are no defenders with a negative, if they are that bad it stops at +0.

For catchers, we only need their caught stealing percentage (CS%), and divide by 5. For each 5 (rounded), they get +1.

So a catcher who only catches 25% of his base stealers gets a 'C+5', while a catcher who gets 44% of his base stealers gets a 'C+9'

First baseman have a default +0, so if they actually play good defense they get a +1 (Maximum)

Second baseman default at +2 (for an average defender), up or down depending on how good they are, minimum of +0, maximum of +5

Shortstops default at +2/3, ranging from +0 to +6

Third baseman default at +1/2, range from +0 to +3

Outfielders default at +1, LR types range from +0 to +2 and CF types from +0 to +3

Point costs:

This is the point you've been waiting for, and...

I don't know it. I honestly compare them with similar players and adjust the cost accordingly.



Well, I hope somebody can use that, and I will approach pitchers later.